Anne Daniels, President
NZNO Tōpūtanga Tapuhi Kaitiaki o Aotearoa
Unintended consequences are outcomes of a purposeful action that are not planned or foreseen. The concept provides a useful tool for explaining complexities resulting from government policy and law. For the less serious matters, it can be laid alongside Murphy’s law as a way to view outcomes that perhaps should have been seen as self-evident. For more serious matters, it provides a perfect lens through which to view and analyse complex reactions and the impact of change. As a case in point, one could ask if there are any (un)intended consequences regarding the current Coalition Government’s position on the Dunedin hospital rebuild?
Unintended consequences can be seen as intended if they are driven by the need for an immediate solution, a need so urgent that the decision to ignore outcomes is deliberate such as the strong and repeated evidence that Dunedin must have a tertiary level care hospital to support not only the Otago region but the whole of the South Island. There are currently only two, the other being Christchurch Hospital.
There is also the concept of a “self-fulfilling prophecy” which describes a false definition of the situation evoking a new behaviour which makes the originally false conception come true such as misinformation through the use of specific language that negates and hides the truth. An example of this is the Government saying the Dunedin hospital rebuild will happen suggesting we will get the tertiary level care hospital that is needed for the whole South Island but offering a secondary level hospital instead.
Currently, Dunedin Hospital provides tertiary level care (see primary, secondary, tertiary, and quaternary care). It’s services support all primary and secondary health and regional hospital services within the Otago region which has increasing demand as it grows as a vibrant and growing tourist mecca. Dunedin Hospital also provides a myriad of high-level specialist care services to meet the patient need throughout the South Island. And, as identified in the original 2021 business case, one of the key drivers for change is Otago’s high older population who are more likely to experience health challenges such as stroke (70% of strokes occur in patients 65 or older), heart attack (60% of MI occur in patients 65 or older), abdominal aortic aneurysm (triple A), or trauma (over 40% of people over the age 65 experience trauma and are more likely to die than younger people).
Why is this important?
If the Government gets its way and the level of tertiary care is reduced, what will this mean for patients? We all know TIME is brain/heart muscle and we have heard of the golden hour in trauma care. Acute care is usually time-sensitive and can result in death or long-term disability if the person does not quickly receive the care they need. Further, advanced trauma care can only be provided by Level III intensive care units and Emergency Departments, of which Dunedin Hospital is one of two in the South Island.
Reducing capability and capacity of the “new build” will also reduce the level of care and the ability of the Otago Medical School to provide the level of clinical placements it needs to continue to attract students. This in turn will impact the economic outcomes of the city and region. Fewer services mean fewer health care professionals and support staff, and poor if not tragic outcomes for the people who need tertiary care services. Lastly, the impact on demand for the Christchurch Hospital tertiary level care (if it is the last one standing) will be monumental.
On 23 October 2024, the Council of Trade Unions led a nationwide revolt against “the most anti-worker government in decades, who are attacking rights of workers and the right to publicly funded health care that meets the need of the people over their lifetimes”. Thousands of people stopped work, as was their right, and made it clear to the Coalition Government that when workers have their backs against the wall, they will fight back, and win. The Dunedin hospital rebuild is not a regional issue, it belongs to all of New Zealand. it will set a precedent for this Government, to continue to divide, rule, and dismantle. But together, we are fighting back, and we will win.
To be a part of the change you want to see, please sign and share the petition to build (Dunedin Hospital) it once, build it right..

